Potential Hurricane Helene Poses Threat to Florida and Gulf Coast

 

Tropical Storm Helene is expected to form in the western Caribbean Sea and may intensify into a powerful hurricane before making landfall along the Florida or northern Gulf Coast later this week.

Residents from Louisiana to Florida should stay alert and keep a close watch on this developing situation. Preparedness plans should be in place as the storm progresses.

Current Location:
A broad low-pressure area is currently located in the western Caribbean Sea, where thunderstorms are becoming more organized. This system, designated as Invest 97L by the National Hurricane Center (NHC), is being closely monitored for further development. The NHC has dispatched its first Hurricane Hunter aircraft to investigate the system.

Formation Timeline and Potential Track:

• Monday-Tuesday: Forecast models indicate that a tropical depression or storm could form as early as Monday or Tuesday. By late Tuesday, the storm could approach Cancún, Cozumel, and western Cuba, potentially reaching Category 1 hurricane strength. Heavy rain and strong winds are expected in these areas.

• Wednesday: Helene could continue to impact Cancún and Cuba while moving into the southern Gulf of Mexico, likely as a hurricane. Coastal regions from the Florida Keys to the Panhandle may experience high surf and outer rainbands.

• Thursday: Helene is projected to make landfall as a hurricane, with models suggesting the likely impact zone will be from Florida's Big Bend to the Panhandle. However, the storm's effects—strong winds, storm surge, and rain—could be felt across a broad area. Forecasts show some possibility of a track extending as far east as Florida's West Coast and as far west as southeast Louisiana.

• Friday: The system is expected to weaken as it moves inland, but heavy rain and flooding could persist over parts of the Southeast.

Potential Intensity:

Helene could become a strong hurricane due to the warm waters in the northwest Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico, which are currently at record high heat levels. Some forecasts predict it could reach Category 3 strength before landfall, driven by favorable conditions such as low wind shear.

Rainfall Outlook:

While exact details on storm surge and winds are still uncertain, Helene is expected to bring heavy rainfall to parts of the Southeast starting Wednesday, with the heaviest rain likely on Thursday and Friday. Flash flooding may occur, particularly in coastal regions affected by storm surge.